The Stupendous Success of PAHAL(DBTL) and #Giveitup

(All figures are guesstimates)

Estimating the savings due to Pahal or DBTL launched by the Government in India has been a very controversial affair. Some studies have pointed to a figure of just 143 crore in FY 2014-15 while keeping mouth shut for FY 2015-16 causing us to suspect the intentions even though an entirely new financial year has passed by. The estimates by the Government itself(particularly its CEA) of around 12.5k crore are not of any particular year but just an extrapolation of the estimated savings due to cancellation of gas connections.

That brings us to a question of were the savings just notional or in reality tangible. A recent article by teleanalysis.com Here  Mentions a figure of 17360 crore savings in the last 51/2 years in all government schemes put together. Various other estimates are being made and one thing that every one agrees is that LPG consumption by commercial users have increased and that by domestic users has reduced even before DBTL was launched.

Consider a hypothetical situation of news of a nuclear bomb being dropped in a large city with 5 million population. The enemy nation does a silly mistake of announcing the drop of the bomb one month in advance. Every single soul in the city has moved out and when the enemy country does indeed drop the bomb it was found that not a single soul has been killed. 

Conclusion: Nuclear bombs are incapable of killing humans.

Some similar logic is being used here where estimates of savings are tweaked to cast aspersions on the convenience and reform that has happened. That commercial cylinder sales boomed before DBTL was to be launched signified that the city was being evacuated. When indeed the DBTL was launched there was nothing much to show in terms of diversion being reduced.

Adding salt to the injury of the critics, the government launched the #Giveitup campaign. In the initial few days of the launch very few people responded. So about 5 lakh people had given up the subsidy and critics leaped in joy and pointed to the paltry 0.05/16 crore=0.3125% people giving it up.

Since a year later 1.13 crore people have given it up and critics are now a little less vocal.

There is news of nearly 2k new agencies to be established in karnataka alone. Liquified Petroleum Gas(LPG) is a primary heating fuel used in India for cooking purposes. Out of the 270 million households 160 million use LPG. With significant savings in subsidy outgo the government has rightly decided to give free LPG connections to poor people in rural places. Target is 50 million new connections.

While explosions due to gas leakage and consequent loss of lives and property are routine, we should try and make gas cylinders more safer by investing in safety devices. Safety should be the nest goal. Long term goal should be to have piped gas in every household.