While it might have become ample clear reading all my blogs that I am a nationalist and most of them have a splash of patriotic fervour which never ceases to abate. All of my posts relate to the trials and tribulations our nation has faced and which has taken a dramatic turn towards the better in recent times. It has been a Topsy-turvy ride of sorts since the days of liberalisation and doordarshan. What I have set out to write is something of a feel good factor that sets in when the going gets smooth. The years of good economic growth such as '96,2003,'06,'07 had some charm in them. They signalled an India on the path to prosperity. The miracle economies of south-east Asia have experienced such times and passed through phases of blistering growth. It's now our turn and surely we will go the whole distance.
While officially we are growing at 7.4% last year(2009-10) and 8.8(target) this year our actual growth in inflation adjusted real terms is somewhere around 4-6%. The number of poor living below the poverty line of 2$ a day is nearly 830 million out of 1190 million. That leaves just 360 million people in the middle class and a small percentage of about a million people in the rich category. A poverty line of 1$ a day means there are 20% poor whose absolute number is about 240 million. These are large numbers of poor indeed and should have been a cause for worry in themselves. The silver lining is that these numbers are reducing steadily. Five to ten years of continuous 9% and above growth would surely make a large dent in the poverty numbers.
Our GDP in nominal terms is 1200 billion, growing at 8-9% we will reach 2 trillion by 2016 and 3 trillion by 2022. Per-Capita income of $1050 per year is going to double to $2000 by 2016 and treble to $3000 by 2022. This means that an average Indian will be earning about Rs. 90,000 per year in 2016 and Rs. 1,35,00 per year in 2022. Poverty has been so much a part of our existence that we stand as a benchmark for other countries. Perhaps when faced with the prospect of unbelievably low levels of poverty the developed countries were forced to redefine the poverty line to $2 per day from $1 exclusively meant to keep a large population in India below poverty. It is pretty much clear that when Mr. Obama exhorts the American students to study science and compete with Indian students, He is ignorant about the pathetic Indian education standards.
With more money in our pockets we Indians would splurge like never before on food, clothing, housing, consumer durables etc. Only sky is the limit for land and property prices. Population density of about 340 per sq-km will rise to 500 per sq-km causing huge burden on natural resources like water. Energy prices already sky high will rise further causing wide spread inflation and starvation. Petroleum stocks the world over are expected to end in another twenty years. Developed countries being more reliant on energy would be more impacted with reduced fuel. While this situation looks grim at the outset, there is lot of hope as renewable energy sources will save the day for the world and might circumvent a recession.
As far as India is concerned we sit in a pretty position as we still are not that dependent on petroleum products as much as others. Indians are lucky that our growth is peaking at a time oil sources are dying out. This will cause a shift in our growth to favour renewable energy.
Implementation of the Aadhaar would lead to prosperity among the poor. The UID project would then be copied by African countries and most of the countries will have biometric based identity systems the world over. Out of the entire history of India this is the best period to be born into as so many social and economic changes are happening and there is all-round development.
