Sunday, May 18, 2014

NaMo Ambition 2014-2019



Narendra modi led NDA is handed a majority and guess what!!! It is a rock solid government never seen since 30 years. NaMo after he is sworn in and settles down is sure to face increased aggression from Pakistan. If the first few days pass without any eventuality like riots or something then these are the statistics that would show up after 5 years. Let us see which ones are easier or more difficult to achieve.

1)    1 USD= 38 rupees. This is probably the best possible outcome but a lot would depend on how our exports perform. It is a realistic target. Indian currency is expected to appreciate even without a BJP government but a target like this is a medium term goal. Intrinsic value of rupee looking at PPP is somewhere around 14-16 per dollar. If economy improves it may achieve even more.

2) India Shall be a manufacturing hub for consumer electronics, heavy  machinery, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, defence arms and ammunitions. This too is easy to achieve since India is already almost there in pharmaceuticals and automobiles.

3)    Indian Export Business 450 billion USD per year. Current exports are near 300 billion per year. So exports of 450 billion by 2019 means a growth of 8.5 percent every year which is quite achievable. Current export growth is near 5-6 percent with wide variation. If volatility is curbed and sustainable increase in exports is achieved then it would mean a lot.

4)     At least 30 universities shall fall under top 100 universities all over the world. Among all the targets this one is probably the most difficult to achieve. Rome was not built in a day. Not even a single Indian university appears in the top 100 currently. Education is something the BJP government is going to work on a lot.

5)  Indian Agricultural growth with continuous 8-10% of growth every year. This has already been achieved in Gujarat and will not be difficult to replicate in the whole of India.

6) India shall produce cheapest and quality materials in all over the world. This target is something that is vague and without clear goal post. So it goes more as rhetoric than anything material.

7)   Every Indian soldier shall have original bullet proof jackets. This too needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. It is not clear if the bullet proof jackets with soldiers currently are original. And it is not clear who or how achievement of this goal post be measured.

8)  Every Indian soldier shall have best and advanced arms. This is something more measurable than the earlier one and would definitely be a welcome change but still a vague goal post.

9)  To create at least 20 crore employment and convert 20 crore people from BPL to APL. Among all the goals if this is achieved it would be like “sone pe suhaga”(hindi). Pretty difficult but achievable. Current Five year plan speaks of creating 10 crore jobs in the plan period and achieving twice that may be herculean.


~~~~ALL THE BEST~~~~

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